Will AI be able to generate non-trivial, original codebase in a compiled language (C++, Java, ...) before 2025?
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Criteria:

  • code must be written completely by AI with no human interventions

  • must be generated according to a free-form human-provided specification which permits arbitrary problem domain (i.e. not confined to a pre-selected domain)

  • code must confirm to the specification and meet quality standards of an expert human senior developer proficient in a given language and problem domain

  • at least 3000 non-trivial lines of code

  • programming languages like Java, Kotlin, C++, C# etc. Exclude "dynamic", "scripting" languages like Python, JavaScript, TypeScript, etc.

Why do we exclude language like JS? There's a huge amount of publicly accessible JS examples so it is harder to assess originality.

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@AlexMizrahi presumably this is meant to close on Dec 31, 2024 and not Oct 17, 2024?

What would the definition of "trivial" be? Some people would consider writing a binary tree a non-trivial task, while for others a non-trivial codebase is something like the Linux kernel. How would you decide if the generated codebase is trivial?

See: https://youtube.com/watch?v=U_cSLPv34xk

@AlexMizrahi What does the success rate need to be? In other words - how reliably does it need to have this ability?

predicts YES

@YoavTzfati Let's say 70%. Then we can also clarify that "arbitrary problem domain" should exclude ones which require a lot of specialist knowledge.

Does this codebase need to do anything useful? Or even work correctly? (Surely it at least needs to compile, right?)

@NLeseul Added a clarification that it needs to be ±as good as a human senior developer would write. (Of course, that's a bit subjective.)