Military conflict between the US and Venezuela by 2027
15
Ṁ1467
2026
71%
chance

Minimum to count as military conflict: either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).

Clarifications:

  • 10+ fatalities counts only if it occurs in Venezuelan waters.

  • Ambiguous location won't count: If the location of an incident is unclear or disputed, it will not count toward YES. Location must be clearly established (e.g., USN interdictions must be clearly within Venezuelan waters).

  • Only internationally recognized Venezuelan waters will count; incidents in disputed or solely Venezuelan-claimed areas (e.g., Essequibo maritime claims) will not.

  • For the narco-boat scenario, incidents only count if clearly within internationally recognized Venezuelan waters (as previously stated).

    • If the US and Venezuelan navies exchange fire, location is irrelevant; the Venezuelan-waters restriction does not apply to this case.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00