Huh, apparently Mohammad Sinwar who after his brother's death took over military leadership died pretty much at the same time as I researched who followed Yawar Sinwar: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_Sinwar

@AlexanderTheGreater the WSJ article is paywalled. Everywhere else I’ve seen him described as ‘a leader’, not ‘the leader’.

@OP Ah crap! Looks like you are right. Sinwar was the Leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip which apparently is not the top Leader which instead is titled Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau.

@mods can this be unresolved somehow?

@AlexanderTheGreater I think it’s fair to resolve this to whoever holds the position that Yahya Sinwar held.

I’d just like to see the confirmation that this is the right guy. (Noting that there’s some incentive right now on Israel to present this guy as the ‘leader’, as justification for bombing a hospital.)

@OP well, Yahya Sinwar was Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau and leader of Hamas in Gaza. Mohammed followed as the leader of Hamas in Gaza role. The Chairman role is temporarily filled by a committee but it's the actual head of all of Hamas

@AlexanderTheGreater ah, right. Then yeah I’d agree that ‘Chairman’ is the key role to look at.

@AlexanderTheGreater unresolved. You should reopen the market when ready

@nikki thank you so much!

@traders As far as I can tell, Yahya Sinwar wasn't followed by a single leader but by Khalil al-Hayya, as a political leader, and Mohammed Sinwar as military leader. Do others share this impression? If so, does it seem fair if this resolves YES if either one gets killed?

@OP As a case for NO, if a ceasefire occurs prior to appointment of a leader, then his survival chance becomes somewhat higher.

If it’s rule-by-committee?

@OP Good question! In that case I'd like to resolve this N/A, since the odds would be very different from the core scenario this is about. Does that seem fair?

@Enlil My only comment is that there may be dispute as to whether ‘rule by committee’ is the same as ‘no leader appointed yet’.

@OP 👍 More reason for me not to participate and stay neutral. I hope Hamas sees this market and gets on with it, so that we can have some excitement without anyone being upset with the outcome 🙂