Trying to beat the market as a retail investor is the same as gambling

Nice background art!

@Unown Bitcoin, stock market and poker chips, that pretty much summarizes my activity on Manifold

There's more longer-term strategizing in Manifold akin to investing; less like gambling although there are some similarities to wagering especially as it relates to sports and political outcomes

@Bruce54df That's because investing is gambling slowly.

@HarrisonNathan investing for retirement is gambling for retirement slowly?

@AmmonLam That's correct. It only seems different to you because Americans have been on a winning streak for a few generations. Ask any Japanese person who tried it for the last three decades, and you might hear a different story.

They are the same picture.

@HarrisonNathan Investing is not the same as gambling although they have a lot in common. Think of buying a money market mutual fund; that's not gambling but it is currently generating a 5% yield. Investing in a well-diversified index fund of equities is not gambling either. Buying Trump's SPAC with the ticker DJT is gambling.

@Bruce54df Trying to beat the risk free rate is gambling. There are wise gambles, though, and a diversified equity portfolio is arguably one of them.