When will an exomoon be discovered? | Manifold

When will an exomoon be discovered?

Mini

4

Ṁ764

2051

1D

1W

1M

ALL

3%

before the end of 2024

6%

before the end of 2025

12%

before the end of 2026

34%

before the end of 2027

34%

before the end of 2028

50%

before the end of 2029

66%

before the end of 2030

66%

before the end of 2035

72%

before the end of 2040

83%

before the end of 2045

92%

before the end of 2050

98.4%

before the end of year 100000

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exomoon

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1,000

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Never

What does this option mean? Resolves NO when one is discovered, resolves YES never (or if we can somehow prove there are none)?

bought Ṁ5 before the end of 2040 YES

Ok, I like "before the end of year 100000" better because it also avoids flipping the yes/no

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Will signs of past or present life be found on the Jovian moon Europa by 2050?

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If abiogenetically distinct alien life is discovered in the solar system before 2070, where will it be first discovered?

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