When will manifold go defunct? (Add answer) | Manifold

When will manifold go defunct? (Add answer)

Mini

13

Ṁ1948

2026

1D

1W

1M

ALL

4%

Before the end of 2024

7%

Before the end of 2025

15%

Before the end of 2026

24%

Before the end of 2027

26%

Before the end of 2028

27%

Before the end of 2029

29%

Before the end of 2030

45%

Before the end of 2035

49%

Before the end of 2040

56%

Before the end of 2050

59%

Before the end of 2100

50%

When Manifold go defunct, real money betting on elections outcomes are legal in the US

50%

When Manifold go defunct, Kalshi will still be running

50%

When Manifold go defunct, Polymarket will still be running

64%

When Manifold go defunct, Twitter (X) will still be running

50%

A month before Manifold go defunct, Joshua will still be active

50%

A month before Manifold go defunct, James will still be the CEO

When the Manifold Market's servers cease operations permanently, preventing users from placing bets, I will consider Manifold to be defunct—even if viewing the markets is still possible.

Should Manifold Markets undergo a name change or be acquired by another company, I will regard the successor as the entity for resolution, provided the core functionality of placing bets on markets remains intact

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This market has the anthropic issue where every option should be 0% + interest just because YES can never actually pay out.

@Mira this market resists that issue:

https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/which-prediction-markets-and-foreca

bought Ṁ90 Before the end of 2024 NO

@Mira I suppose Manifold could allow resolving existing markets and directing donations to charity but not placing bets.

@MartinRandall it's how most prediction markets shut down.. they stop allowing new bets and just slowly wind down operations

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