In a historic referendum on June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, with 52% of the public supporting the departure in a move known as Brexit.
Following the referendum, the UK formally triggered Article 50 in March 2017, beginning a complex and lengthy negotiation process to determine the terms of its exit.
The UK officially left the EU on January 31, 2020, marking the end of a 47-year membership and entering a transition period that concluded on December 31, 2020, to establish new post-Brexit relations.
Will UK rejoin the European Union before 2050?
Resolves Yes if UK completed joining the European Union before 2050
Update 2025-02-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Clarification:
If the EU is renamed or succeeded by another organization, it will count as a rejoin as long as the new organization largely consists of similar constituent countries as the current EU.
The creator will use their judgement to determine whether the renamed organization meets this criterion.
Users concerned about this interpretation are advised not to bet on this market.
1,000
1.00I assume it must be the European Union by name and not a future European organisation that might stem from the EU but not be named as such?
@LukeShadwell any updates on this? It’s quite important to have answered. If the EU ceases to exist by name, or an exists under an entirely new charter / fundamentally different organisation, and the UK joins this does it resolve YES? If so I will cancel my trades.
@LukeShadwell @mods This market is problematic imo because it seems unclear from the criteria what counts as rejoining. There’s a very broad range of events that could end up being yes or no entirely depending on the resolvers personal opinion
@LukeShadwell @AmmonLam This is a case where you will need to handle the questions on your own market.
@LukeShadwell if EU got renamed or succeeded by another organization, as long as it still largely consists of similar constituent countries as the EU today, it would still count for the resolution for this market.
I will use my judgement on whether the renamed organization still largely consists of similar constituent countries.
Do not bet on this market if you are worried about my judgement
What happens if the UK rejoins piecemeal - first 26+6, then independent Scotland, then finally the United Kingdom of England and Wales?
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00