Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?
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Plus
38
Ṁ11k
2029
6%
chance

Lots of possible edge cases here so this is going to be a judgement call to some extent. But here are some examples which may clarify the intent:

Resolves yes if:

  • There is a constitutional amendment allowing Trump to have a third term as President

  • Trump dissolves the office of President and functionally becomes dictator-for-life

  • Someone else is elected President on a platform of "doing exactly what Trump says" and effectively becomes a figurehead for Trump.

Resolves no if:

  • Trump peacefully transfers power to another presidential candidate who acts independently from him

  • Trump attempts to remain in office but his authority is not recognized by other branches of government

  • A substantial portion of the United States secedes

  • Update 2024-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Having the same policies as Trump or seeking his advice is not sufficient for a YES resolution

    • The elected president must be following Trump's orders on all policy decisions to the extent that Trump's power over the country would be similar to if he were actually president

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Regarding “Someone else is elected President on a platform of "doing exactly what Trump says"”: would you say Kamala Harris ran on a platform of doing exactly what Biden says since she couldn’t point to anything she would do differently

@derikk having the same policies as Trump, or seeking his advice, is not sufficient. They would need to essentially be following Trump's orders on all policy decisions, such that Trump's power over the country would be similar to if he were actually president. I strongly doubt that Harris would have acted that way towards Biden if she were elected.

Can you tag this with #US Democracy?