Will penalties for NATO countries not meeting the 2% of GDP spending target be put in place before the end of 2028?
Mini
5
Ṁ802029
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A Trump advisor has suggested penalizing NATO members who do not meet the commitment to spending at least 2% of their GDP on their military.
This market will resolve to YES if, before the end of 2028, an official policy is made by any NATO country that specifically penalizes all of the other NATO members who do not meet the 2% spending target. Examples of penalties that would resolve this market to YES include (but are not limited to):
Losing Article 5 protections
Trade tariffs
Losing access to shared military equipment
If such a policy is adopted but it will only start to penalize members after a certain time period it will still count.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Will NATO article 5 (collective Defense) be instigated before the end of 2025?
11% chance
Which of NATO members will have met the target of 2% of GDP defence spending in any year before 2030?
Which NATO member states will meet 2% GDP defense spending target by June 2025?
Will 18 or more countries in NATO spend 2% of their GDP on defense in 2024?
86% chance
Will NATO approve $100B to Ukraine by the end of 2024?
44% chance
Will NATO spend combined more than $2 trillion on defence by 2028?
64% chance
If Trump wins, will at least 20 NATO members reach the 2% target for defense spending in 2025?
58% chance
Will any NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?
45% chance
Which countries will be members of NATO at the end of 2026?
Will a NATO country shoot down a Russian military asset by end of 2024?
14% chance