Considering the criteria, if the last IDF statement has the number at, say, ~1000, but reputable news sources estimate it at well above 10k, will you still default to IDF's statement and resolve as <2k?

@GazDownright I’d like to think there’s room for inferral from IDF statements. If the IDF have said that they’ve deployed four divisions, and a division has a known number of troops, then we should take that as a statement of people deployed.

@OP I think everyone will agree with above.

@AviSchwartz the next question is if we count reservists as fully fledged soldiers at a 1:1 ratio 🙃

Israel has sent four divisions into Lebanon: https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/08/israel-lebanon-ground-offensive-hezbollah-gaza?amp_js_v=0.1&amp_gsa=1#webview=1

The Guardian says that means that the total number of troops on the ground is around 15k. But I don't think Israel will give an exact number.

Is it the maximum deployment before jan 1? What if multiple units totalling 10000+ enter Lebanon, but the maximum at any one time is 1000 ?

official IDF reports rarely includes numbers like this, only years after. definitely not before jan 1.