Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States Congress passes legislation that limits President Donald Trump's authority to impose tariffs, and this legislation is signed into law (or Congress overrides a presidential veto) during the 2025 calendar year. The limitation must force down tariff rates created by Donald Trump's executive order in 2025.

The market resolves NO if no such legislation becomes law by December 31, 2025.

Background

• In April 2025, President Trump declared a national emergency to impose tariffs on various countries, including a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on all other countries.

• Senators Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) introduced a bipartisan bill that would require the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of imposing new tariffs and for Congress to approve them within 60 days.

• The Senate passed a resolution to block Trump's tariffs on Canadian imports, but this faces challenges in the House and a potential presidential veto.

• House Democrats have been preparing to force a vote to terminate the tariffs.

• Historically, Congress has delegated significant tariff authority to the president through various laws, including the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Section 232) and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Considerations

• For this market to resolve YES, legislation must be passed by both chambers of Congress and become law, either through presidential signature or a veto override.

• Given the political dynamics and Trump's strong stance on tariffs, any legislation limiting his authority would likely face a presidential veto, requiring a two-thirds majority in both chambers to override.