When will a neuroscientist say that artificial consciousness has been invented?
Mini
3
Ṁ772100
1D
1W
1M
ALL
34%
Before 2030
50%
Before 2035
50%
Before 2040
62%
Before 2050
72%
Before 2075
80%
Before 2100
Resolves positively if a neuroscientist publishes an article in a top journal (either interdisciplinary or top neuroscience journal) claiming there is something that it's like to be an artificial system that has been created, with confidence of at least 50%.
Will only resolve positively for silicon based consciousness , not biological consciousness.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Artificial consciousness will emerge in the course of increasing AI capabilities
67% chance
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
39% chance
Will artificial sentience be created by end of 2050?
58% chance
If the hard problem of consciousness is solved, what will be true of it?
Will artificial sentience be created by end of 2030?
21% chance
In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?
Will a major AI company acknowledge the possibility of conscious AIs by 2026?
82% chance
Will an AI simulate human consciousness by 2100?
74% chance
By 2025, we will have made an artificial system that is judged with high likelihood (>80%) to have some sort of conscious experience
5% chance
Will the Hard problem of consciousness be solved within the next 15 years?
16% chance