The trial was, or still is scheduled for late-May but nobody seriously believes it will begin before the election unless Cannon is recused or changes the cadence of her docket and begins making "papered" rulings. Cannon has gotten close to the edge of what might get her recused on appeal and the ball is in the Special Counsel's court. This market resolves YES if Smith files a motion to recuse Cannon with the Court of Appeals before the election.