Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, as defined below, holds continuously until December 31, 2025, at 23:59 UTC. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
"Ceasefire holds" means there is no widely reported resumption of significant, sustained military operations between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hamas or other Palestinian militant groups in or originating from the Gaza Strip.
The market will resolve "No" if, prior to or on December 31, 2025, 23:59 UTC, at least two of the following major international news organizations report a resumption of significant military conflict, such as sustained airstrikes, raids, ground incursions, or widespread rocket fire:
Isolated incidents, minor skirmishes, or limited retaliatory actions that do not escalate into a sustained military campaign and are not widely reported as a breakdown of the ceasefire by the specified sources will not be considered a breach for the purpose of this market's resolution.
Update 2025-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For a NO resolution, the military operations must be sustained for a couple days, not just isolated incidents or single-day events.
Update 2025-10-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator will resolve NO if the current situation does not quiet down within two days' time from their comment.
Update 2025-10-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Strikes lasting three days constitute sustained strikes for the purpose of determining if the ceasefire has broken down.
1,000
1.00@Balasar this is completely different than the resolution criteria, which says nothing about 2 days but talks about news organizations reporting.
@S142857 News orgs have already reported on this as a significant ceasefire break. The wait is in your favor, not to your detriment.
@Balasar reporting on the strikes is not the same as reporting there is sustained strikes or significant sustained conflict. Request is just to follow the resolution criteria
@S142857 If they last three days, they are sustained strikes. I am simply clarifying the existing resolution criteria, as I did previously nine days ago the last time this happened. I suspect in practice that there will be very little ambiguity here.