Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?

593

Ṁ380k

Dec 30

chance

ALL

This market resolves YES if Valve themselves confirm half life 3 is in development before January 1st 2026.

Update 2025-11-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if Valve announces a game called "Half-Life" (even without a number like "3") that is widely regarded as a sequel to the events after Half-Life 2. The creator will use their judgment to determine if this criterion is met.

Update 2025-11-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A prequel or side story will not qualify for YES resolution. The game must be a meaningful continuation of the events following Half-Life 2 (not just a brief story segment like the ending of Half-Life: Alyx).

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https://x.com/i/status/1999338010731524539

opened a Ṁ884 NO at 10% order

@No_uh limit order at NO for yall slasher fans ;)

Despair.

@Seamoore Always bet on the base rate tldr

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bought Ṁ333 YES from 15% to 20%

boughtṀ9,000NO

@Shelvacu

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sold Ṁ514 YES

took profits. Still got hopium

bought Ṁ100 NO

I don't think it makes sense to announce it in December if it launches with the Steam Machine. They could wait until next year.

DECEMBER 3RD 2025 10:33 AM PST

bought Ṁ250 NO

@Bandors fuck

@Bandors Don't worry, I heard it'll be announced tomorrow

price dipped just long enough for me to lose leagues lmao

@Robincvgr saaaame

@Robincvgr I sold my m5k shares before the spike, very clean exit

opened a Ṁ4,200 NO at 42% order

Order up 🛎️

This is 50% on polymarket, with even stricter rules on the name. Crazy times.

filled a Ṁ1,000 NO at 25% order

Edit: disregard

sold Ṁ1,414 NO

bought Ṁ100 NO from 38% to 37%

@Bandors I sold my NO shares, I'll take my 1% profits. Lots of rumors going around still.

@Bandors

@Bandors what reason do we have to trust this guy

@FecalAbhuman none

And I'm no expert, but those machine learning developments sound too good to be true and not the kinda stuff Valve does, especially running all this on a mid tier gpu. HL3 would largely be made for the new valve hardware, I doubt those could handle that level of stuff.

And why 1:1 structural demolition, movie quality water, and complex vehicle physics? That doesn't sound like a priority for a half life game right?

And why would Valve be working with an AI company on this, from what I've seen they mostly keep things in house.

Hm gonna say this is total BS. Physics were the big gimmick of HL2 because that was then a cutting-edge thing you could do, it's not like an inherent core idea of the series.

And the ML physics stuff sounds like nonsense, though I admit it's not my area of expertise.

@Bandors

sold Ṁ53 YES

@Bandors No way thats real, its too GPT-esque.

@n_t Counter point: Insiders likely already betting on a release

@Bandors This one has more liquidity

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