Gemini 3.0 Prop Bets

Ṁ11k

Dec 31

ALL

52%

Gemini 3.0 Pro METR time horizon of 3 hours or more

12%

Gemini app tops App Store (#1) within 1 month of Gemini 3 release

Resolved

YES

new SOTA at MMLU

Resolved

YES

new SOTA at FrontierMath Tiers 1-3 from some gemini 3 model (deepthink counts)

Resolved

YES

new SOTA at FrontierMath Tier 4 from some gemini 3 model (deepthink counts)

Resolved

YES

DeepThink version released within 2 months of Gemini 3.0 Pro release

Resolved

YES

>=70% SWE-bench Verified (Bash only, per swebench.com)

Update 2025-11-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For "DeepThink version of model released alongside Gemini 3.0 Pro":
- "Alongside" means available to the public within a few hours of each other
- If no sight of DeepThink to users by the day after Gemini 3.0 Pro release, this will resolve NO
- May resolve N/A if ambiguous

Get

1,000

and

1.00

6 Comments

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Technical report has 30-70 safety-related pages

@Bayesian Safety report is out, https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/gemini/gemini_3_pro_fsf_report.pdf

Does page count span multiple reports?

DeepThink version of model released alongside Gemini 3.0 Pro

@Bayesian What does "alongside" mean here? It wasn't released at the same time. Can this potentially resolve Yes later, or does it resolve No now?

sold Ṁ123 DeepThink version of... YES

@Haiku hmmm i'm not sure, maybe that they are available to the public within a few hours of each other? i might resolve this N/A if it's ambiguous, but if no sight of deepthink to users by tomorrow i think it's fair to resolve it NO?

bought Ṁ240 native image-out cap... NO

@Bayesian

The version that launched today has no image-out capabilities: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/models#gemini-3-pro

The model card has 9 pages: https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/Model-Cards/Gemini-3-Pro-Model-Card.pdf

boughtṀ75Gemini app tops App ... YES

@ItsMe wanna bet more

no thanks

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