The option with the highest 2025 gross on the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available, will resolve YES.
Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.
1,000
1.00@gamedev true family movies like zootopia have a very different box office profile than other movies (minecraft was popular with kids, but isn't quite comparable, and didn't have great holds).
for a very naive ballpark estimate, zootopia 1 had a 75m OW, and after 35d (just using your 5w number, haven't counted this for myself) it had grossed 281m, so ~3.75x. if you expect zootopia 2 to have 30m smaller OW than minecraft, that's ~133m, the same ratio gets you to ~500m.
it's fair to doubt that multiplier, but a proper family movie that opens to 133m could easily outpace minecraft by EOY.
if i were actually looking at this in more detail, the thanksgiving holiday makes comps hard, so i'd start with moana 2 (another family movie sequel where the original became very popular on streaming, crucially, also released over thanksgiving). that ~130m projection is for the 3d OW, not 5d. moana 2's 5d OW was a monster 225m, but only ~139m for the 3d, not so far ahead of zootopia's 2 projection. moana 2 reached 404m by EOY, but z2 has an extra day, so let's call it ~410m for this comp. that's <430m, but moana 2 wasn't very well received, so it's not hard to expect it to have slightly better holds and get that extra 20m+.
ofc, the biggest uncertainty here is that OW projection. if z2 hits 140m+ in its 3d, i'd guess it has a fair shot at catching minecraft by EOY. if the projections are too high (or for whatever reason its 3d/5d OW ratio is much higher than moana 2), then it won't. there's a decent chance that after OW, we will be pretty certain that z2 will be way ahead or way behind minecraft by EOY.
given that this is manifold i should probably place bets rather than write explanations but the odds of this market are unlikely to get too far misaligned from polymarket anyways so it's hard to find extreme price differences & it's more interesting to discuss.
@Ziddletwix yeah same, I'm just here to learn. I guess that makes sense. Oh well Ive built a gigantic position on vibes already so nothing to do but sit and wait lol
@gamedev I think the trades/industry are hoping for a barbenheimer type phenomenon, wherein Zootopia and Wicked play to essentially different audiences and raise the overall box office through at least avatar, which will then do its avatar thing. but I'm not totally persuaded either Zootopia or Wicked really have great cases. Wicked's is at least pretty easy to understand. it just needs to do as well as wicked part 1, plus it has an extra day to do it with. @Ziddletwix makes the case well for Zootopia, but if anything I came away from reading it more bear-ish. but basically, if it opens as big as it's tracking for and has better holds than moana 2, it could do it. but I think its worth noting that frozen 2 opened four days earlier in 2019, and still only got to 430 by the end of the year.
That being said, I think Minecraft is a bit overrated at 40%, but quite underrated at 20% (which is where polymarket has it today). If you exclude 2020, you'd have to go back to 2014 to find a year where the highest grossing movie was under $475 million. Minecraft's $432 would have it as the fourth highest grossing movie of the year more often than even the second over that decade. So I think some of the skepticism is just that, that it can't possible end up being the highest grossing movie with just $432.