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Background
Donald Trump has proposed a "Gold Card" program as an alternative to the existing EB-5 investor visa program. The Gold Card would reportedly cost $5 million per card, compared to the current EB-5 program which requires a minimum investment of $800,000 to $1.05 million. Trump has suggested these cards could generate significant revenue, with ambitious claims of potentially selling up to one million cards (which would theoretically generate $5 trillion).
The current EB-5 visa program typically issues fewer than 10,000 visas annually. The Gold Card program would target wealthy foreign nationals seeking expedited paths to U.S. residency.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to the total number of Trump Gold Cards sold during the 2025 calendar year (January 1, 2025 - December 31, 2025).
If the Gold Card program is not implemented or officially launched by the end of 2025, this market will resolve to 0.
If official government data on Gold Card sales is not publicly available, resolution will be based on credible media reports or official statements from the Trump administration regarding the number of cards sold.
1,000
1.00@YourFriend @ian the AI robot invented a detail that was not in the clarification. Teach it to behave!
@Quroe I believe it's the usual expected value calculation using the probability of each bucket times some representative value for that bucket (midpoint? and who knows what happens for the last bucket, maybe I should actually read the code).
Expected value is not the most intuitive summary statistic for non-normal distributions.
@Eliza They almost always over-value the extreme end, especially if the extreme end is large and the current value is small. It's very hard for traders to get the extreme ends small enough.
@Eliza Heck. Okay. The joke is no longer going over my head. I get it now. π Yes, this was about the unit being an RGB value.
Carry on.
lol, me regurgitating expected value stuff that I figured out on this very market 9 months ago https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell#u3p8xjttxwk
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Applications are open: https://trumpcard.gov/
@Bayesian If people have applied (and paid the $15,000 processing fee), but haven't actually received their card yet, would you count that?
@TimothyJohnson5c16 @Bayesian this is a really important clarification and a timely response would be most helpful.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Looks like the $15,000 processing fee is not the entirety or even majority of the total card cost? so that doesn't seem like a card sold to me. I'm not sure what the necessary or sufficient conditions are for someone counting as having bought a card but if you've only payed a small % of the total cost that doesn't seem like it counts
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/07/07/trump-gold-card-visa-immigration/
Trump and his aides have repeatedly exaggerated the likelihood that such a program can be implemented under current law, and they have made no effort to introduce legislation to make it happen. Immigration attorneys and other legal experts say a president has no power to unilaterally create a new visa category, which would require an act of Congress.
Site launched today: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5346271-donald-trump-gold-card-website/.