This market will resolve yes if a large, nationally representative survey in England finds that 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes by the end of 2035. This includes surveys released after this date, but the data covers 2035 or earlier. I will accept rounded figures to the nearest 0.1% (e.g. the true figure could be 5.04% and this market would still resolve yes).

The UK government has set a target for England to be 'smokefree' by 2030 - achieved when adult smoking prevalence is 5% or less.

The latest figures from the Office of National Statistics suggest that in 2021, 13% of adults in England smoked, down from 13.8% the year before and the lowest rate ever recorded.

A recent review (the 'Khan review') said that “without further action, England will miss the smokefree 2030 target by at least 7 years”, and made 15 recommendations to help the government achieve its smokefree ambitions.

Since then, the UK government has announced a scheme to provide 1 million smokers with free e-cigarette starter packs to help them quit (known as 'swap to stop'), as well as financial incentives to encourage pregnant women to stop smoking. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/smokers-urged-to-swap-cigarettes-for-vapes-in-world-first-scheme