I am open to different sources of data on this one; I think they should agree, but I will happily argue with anyone who has a different source until we get it resolved.
More precisely, my question here is: Will the U.S. obesity rate be more than 1 percentage point lower, on Jan 1, 2030, than it was in mid-2024?
So decreases that reverse before 2030, don't count.
1,000
1.00@jdilla That is "relative to trend", meaning not necessarily an absolute decrease.
It does look in that graph like an absolute decrease has happened. However, the major likely feed-in to the question here is whether there's enough ROI left in the population for increased GLP-1 agonist adoption, that increased GLP-1 agonist adoption can continue to decrease obesity faster than it "secularly" increases, for the next 4 years.
Will edit the description to clarify.
@StephenBuggy Not yet; I of course don't really trust the CDC, but I don't know who to use instead. Right now I'm in an epistemic state where I'm open to suggestions.
Of course I'll just default to government data [ CDC or otherwise ] if I don't find anyone obviously better before market close.
And if a market participant thinks my preferred source's data was non-representative, I will hear out their arguments and reconsider.