At the end of 2024 I will look over monkeypox data released by CDC for the two preceding years (Jan. 2023-Dec. 2024).
https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/mpx-trends.html
If there are noticeably more cases in the warm summer months (May-Sept.) than the cold winter months (Nov.-March), this resolves YES; otherwise, NO.
If data are not available for those two years, this resolves N/A.
If comparable data are available from other rich Western countries with good record-keeping, I may take those into account as well.
I'm being deliberately vague about the precise definition of "noticeably more". I'm looking for more than mere statistical significance; I'm looking for a trend so obvious that you can clearly see it from the numbers. If this becomes contentious, I'd be open to discussion
Update Jan 2023: If the outbreak ends worldwide, then this resolves NO.
If there are no cases in rich Western countries but there are cases elsewhere, I will resolve on the best available data.
1,000
1.00I would argue that if there is no data for summer months of 2023 and for all of 2024 is because the outbreak is over and thus it was not a seasonal illness. What do you think @Boklam?
@egroj Sure, that sounds reasonable. (I originally planned to resolve N/A in that case, but no human users have YES shares in this market anyway, so I won't upset anyone.)
But: if there are no data from rich Western countries with good record-keeping, I may consider data from other countries as well.
So: If the outbreak ends worldwide, no more cases, then this resolves NO.
If the outbreak ends in rich countries but continues elsewhere, I will look for the best-available data from elsewhere, and resolve based on that.
