Resolves Yes if, on the close date, the balance of evidence is that it is possible for one person to spread BCS3-L1 from one person's mouth to another, without doing any preparation beforehand, essentially just by kissing. I will resolve based on my own judgement of what the balance of evidence says. I will not bet.
For context: The FAQ document provided by Lantern bioworks says
Will this spread to everyone I kiss? It’s very unlikely in non-immunocompromised adults
So this would be a no by default. But if there is a confirmed instance of a mouth-to-mouth transmission which seems more credible than not, this would resolve YES.
1,000
1.00Traders may be interested in a podcast I recorded with the founder where we discuss this possibility: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPyZt3EJCFM
https://www.popsci.com/scitech/article/2008-01/germ-could-save-your-life/
The regulators saw a genetically modified bacteria that was robust enough to take over any person’s mouth, and they were worried about its unchecked spread.
@Odoacre Hmm, I see how the quote I posted is confusing. I interpreted as "it is unlikely that it is possible", but perhaps it means "every time you kiss someone, there is a positive but small chance of transmission".
I think a single confirmed instance of a mouth-to-mouth transmission is what I'm going for. If I am just not read up on this and that actually exists already, I'll resolve YES.