Same resolution criteria as: /MetaculusBot/will-singapore-be-the-first-country . This, in turn, duplicated this Metaculus question.
1,000
1.00Pretty large number on some of these Metaculus predictions below, IMO, given that:
No country has more than 1-in-17 babies born via IVF today.
The countries below aren't even all the top IVF countries.
Intelligence selection is controversial and that will delay even further the point in time when this resolves.
I think this will probably resolve at least two decades in the future, and trends today aren't strong enough to predict with this level of confidence.
@BoltonBailey I think Israel and Singapore are both strong candidates.
This market is about date of resolution: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/when-will-some-country-do-widesprea-10fd096b7660 .
Israel and Denmark have the highest rates of IVF babies. Not sure what the other top countries are. Yes, Denmark is not on the market, though there are Metaculus questions on if some EU country does it. The EU is very regulatory.
I'm a little more bullish on the market than you. I think probably this market will be resolved in the 2030s. But perhaps in the 2040s. Might not resolve until there's IVG.
@nathanwei Ok, well, that market currently has a probability of about 50% for the answers up to 2045, so I don't know if it's at the point where I have to put mana where my mouth is on my earlier "two decades" statement yet. Let me know if you want to do a limit order deal, I expect I'd probably be willing to do a fractional kelly bet with around 5% of my balance at that probability (don't want to go too hard on a market that won't resolve for decades if I'm right, sorry) - we would have to hash out specific 5 year terms on that market or make a new market.
@BoltonBailey I think I don't see enough upside to investing in long-term markets without loans. But I'm a bit more bullish than you. We're looking at 75-80% by 2045 I think, not 50%.