Resolves YES if Magnus ever holds a FIDE rating of at least 2900. His current peak, per Wikipedia, is 2881. Resolves NO if Carlsen dies or has not reached this rating by 2100.
Close date updated to 2099-12-31 5:59 pm
Update: 2700chess.com to be used as a resolution source.
1,000
1.00I'm not sure about this. Here's an article from 2005 about Kasparov's retirement, but I think he still plays in tournaments sometimes. I also don't know if Carlsen might declare his retirement, then come back - he gave up his title while apparently still being the best player in the world.
To others: Does anyone in the market object either way?
@BoltonBailey Kasparov does occasionally receive invites to exhibition tournaments, but they are not FIDE-rated. You can see on his official FIDE profile that he's had "No Games" (in classical chess) every month since April 2005.
@BoltonBailey I would support "declares his retirement AND ceases to have an active rating" as a way to be able to resolve the market much earlier with only a small change, but not sure if any YES holders would object.
To be clear, you're referring to the live rating on 2700chess.com, or to the monthly published FIDE rating list?