Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2049-05-01?
Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2049-05-01?
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The resolves "YES" if by the market close date, there is a publically-downloadable full formal proof of Fermat's last theorem in a theorem-proving language such as Coq, Lean, or Isabelle.
Close date updated to 2049-05-01 11:59 pm
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
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