will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
Plus
19
Ṁ24032030
74%
chance
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I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers. I'll write a list below, but if there are labs that aren't on the list but plausibly could be considered frontier, I'll make a manifold poll and rule based on the markets decision.
Also please comment if you think I've missed one:
OpenAI
Anthropic
Meta
Amazon
DeepMind/Google
DeepSeek
Alibaba (NOTE: this used to say Qwen, but Qwen is the name of the model, not the lab)
Mistral
XAI (Elon musk lab)
Nvidia
Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Preprints Included:
Preprints (e.g., arXiv) count as a valid form of releasing a paper.
The focus is on whether the big labs deem that an AI significantly contributed to the paper, rather than on traditional journal criteria.
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1,0001.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
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Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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