https://twitter.com/apples_jimmy/status/1703695596396441741
Resolves yes if any time before 01/01/2026 it is revealed that a major AI lab (OpenAI, Deepmind, Anthropic, etc) believed they had AGI internally before October 2023.
1,000
1.00Problem: the term "AGI" was already ambiguous, and suffered of goalpost moving. I'm betting some YES due to the view, held by some, that GPT is already AGI.
Given the original tweet got deleted, here's a screenshot of a screenshot from the account, for posterity:
I’m betting NO based on these two vague judgements:
AGI feels like fantasy to me. That’s not a reasoned opinion; that’s how I feel. However, I also think that it makes a lot of sense to judge AGI as unlikely to have been developed at this early stage.
Although I do agree with the markets that it’s more likely that an AI lab thinks they’ve achieved AGI than that they actually have, I have the vague idea that people at AI labs are “smart” and that they wouldn’t have such an erroneous belief. This is shakier than 1, and I understand people betting this market up on the grounds of human fallibility.
Any comments/ things I haven’t considered?
@MartinRandall That'd work, whatever would make it into an official stance of the organization.
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00