Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?
Mini
6
Ṁ2392027
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The requirement are that such system exist and the general public knows about, either from a leak or an announcement, it doesn’t have to take the job, just that such system exist by the end of 2027, or at Friday, December 31, 2027.
It should be capable of doing 50% of jobs that exist in the year 2020, at least as good as the average person in those jobs, as cost efficient as the people in those jobs. It must be a single system and NOT a collection of system.
(Modified from LDJ’s HLSI benchmark)
Get
1,000
and1.00
Sort by:
@Irigi Leaks will have to be verifiable, likely by an official government whistle blower documents or by an employee under oath, but I doubt this question will will be resolved via a leak, it will likely be resolved via an official announcement
Related questions
Related questions
Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?
45% chance
Will over 50% of households in any developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making by the end of 2030?
55% chance
By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?
20% chance
Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?
39% chance
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
40% chance
Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024?
4% chance
Will AI take over the world by 2100?
41% chance
Will >50% of Fortune 500 global managers report regularly using generative AI for work by June 30, 2025?
32% chance
Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?
47% chance
Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?
62% chance