Will an un-mitigated vulnerability be found in Intel's Raptor Lake CPUs before the end of 2025?
Mini
5
Ṁ85
2025
59%
chance

Will a new vulnerability be discovered that allows attackers to exploit the design of any of these CPUs to break confidentiality or integrity without any software bug existing? Classic examples of this on older CPUs include Spectre, Meltdown and L1TF.

This excludes new exploits that require configurations of the system that diverge from Intel's pre-existing recommendations, as was the case with the "Indirector" exploit: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/cyber-security/newer-intel-cpus-vulnerable-to-new-indirector-attack-spectre-style-attacks-risk-stealing-sensitive-data-intel-says-no-new-mitigations-required.

I'm extremely likely to resolve this equivalently to a market titled "will Intel release a security advisory recommending that users make a configuration change or update microcode on these CPUs". (Added in a later edit: I should also have mentioned explicitly that the discovery will need to be announced publicly to resolve to a yes!)

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