Will GiveWell make further grants for Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) before 2027?
Will GiveWell make further grants for Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) before 2027?
Mini
2
Ṁ30
2027
42%
chance

KMC

Kangaroo mother care (KMC) is intended to be a low-cost alternative to conventional neonatal intensive care for low birth weight infants and has been hypothesized to reduce neonatal mortality compared to conventional neonatal intensive care. It primarily involves skin-to-skin contact between mother and infant.

https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/kangaroo-mother-care

Previous Grant

GiveWell found KMC to be potentially highly effective and made a grant of $2,423,199 to r.i.c.e in Nov 2022 to support the intervention.

Optionality

Part of the reason for this first grant was the optionality it created for future grants (by keeping KMC alive and more confidently establishing effectiveness). This is shown in the cost effectiveness spreadsheet, Optionality sheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OzlOwhrH4hCoRLqQ3am_1ikP_T_dCTfUTENQTbiYf1w/edit#gid=953253123

Resolution

Resolves Yes if GiveWell make a further grant for KMC (in general, not strictly through r.i.c.e, in India or with the same funding model).


Resolve No on Jan 1st 2027 otherwise.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00


Sort by:

Sheet says

Probability we fund this after initial grant | 25% | guess

1y

@jskf yeah I was browsing the spreadsheet and that's actually what inspired me to create this market

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.