Will a tourist cruise to Antarctica results in a significant oil spill in the subantarctic or antarctic Region? Before Jan 1st 2030.

If a tourist cruise vessel, with aim to visit Antarctica with passengers, causes an accidental oil spill due to collision, grounding or sinking, for any quantity of oil, this resolves Yes. If the oil spill is due to mishandling or is voluntary, it must be estimated to be at least 10 barrels in volume. The oil spill must be a single event.

Credible sources for resolution include governmental statement and press releases, investigative journalism piece (for reputed outlet, including and favoring outlet specializing in arctic region conservancy), judicial testimony, or admission of the cruise company themselves. I reserve the right to resolve N/A after discussion in the comments, in case of ambiguity.