Will there be an oil spill in Alaska before 2030? | Manifold

Will there be an oil spill in Alaska before 2030?

Mini

7

Ṁ152

2029

79%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management estimates a 75% chance of a "large oil spill" spilling more than 1k barrels of oil for offshore oil development.

Now, it's not offshore, but in March 2023, Joe Biden approved a plan to drill for oil in the north of Alaska.

Will there be a "large" oil spill in Alaska spilling more than 1k barrels of oil before 2030?

Get

1,000

and

1.00

Sort by:

I don't think I would use this market as evidence, but I'm going to have a debate about Arctic resource extraction soon, see https://manifold.markets/bohaska/will-i-win-my-next-debate-competiti

Will I win my next debate competition?

40% chance. It's online, and the resolution is "The benefits of resource extraction in the Arctic Circle outweigh the harms" Why I might win: I'm a native English speaker, and so is my debating partner, and the competition's in China I think I am a generally good debator Why I may not win: Base rate is low I have some doubts on my Pro case Our debate club meets up twice a week, our debate coach comes once a week. You can ask me for my blocks. Trying to rig this to resolve YES by giving me help is encouraged. I reserve the right to buy YES shares on this market, until the start of the finals debate.

Related questions

Will the world reach peak oil production before 2030?

Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?

(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

Will global peak oil production occur before 2029?

Will peak oil demand happens before 2028?

Antarctica cruise leading to oil spill? Before 2030

Will global peak oil production occur before 2031?

What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?

Will a major battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?

Will there be a fatal space accident before 2030?

Related questions

Will the world reach peak oil production before 2030?

Antarctica cruise leading to oil spill? Before 2030

Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?

Will global peak oil production occur before 2031?

(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?

Will global peak oil production occur before 2029?

Will a major battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?

Will peak oil demand happens before 2028?

Will there be a fatal space accident before 2030?

Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules