5% atheist as of October '22. Resolves per the statistic in the below Wiki link as of close or, if no longer available, per a similarly reputable source.
2022-10-09: Will 10% or more of Americans identify as atheist by 2040? (Per the Wikipedia link in the description) → Will 10% or more of Americans identify as atheist by 2040?
Update 2023-01-07: I sold my shares (for a loss) and will no longer bet on this market since I will be resolving it.
Update: 2023-01-08: It seems the resolution decision might be more difficult now as the aforementioned Wiki link seems to no longer cite atheist %s in the U.S.
For a positive resolution, I will need to see either (i) sustained comments on Wikipedia that suggest 10% or more of Americans are atheist or (ii) 3 or more reputable polls that suggest the same.
For purposes of this market, I will include naturalism as atheism but not agnosticism.
1,000
1.00@xyz Yeah, it seems that there are a lot fewer people who identify themselves as atheists than who actually are atheists. I think this is due to the stigma around the word in America. I wonder if there's a similar discrepancy in European countries, or if more people are willing to take the label since it's less stigmatized.