Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?
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I've heard this comment several times, and it seems odd given political biases ought to decrease performance in the context of prediction markets.
Resolves based on whether PredictIt has a conservative bent when forecasting the 2028 US presidential election relative to competitor prediction market / forecasting platforms.
Dec 12, 3:19pm: Will the popular perception that PredictIt has a conservative bias persist by end of 2028? → Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?
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@L I will look at PredictIt shares for major election markets and if there is a substantial conservative leaning relative to other orgs like Manifold, Metaculus, Kalshi, etc. then I will resolve positively
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