Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?
Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?
Plus
29
Ṁ20672031
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Elon Musk create a market on Manifold before the end of 2030?
20% chance
Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
16% chance
Will the New York Times create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
13% chance
Will Manifold have a numerical market type by June 1, 2025?
13% chance
Will Manifold Markets still be around by 2030?
89% chance
Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)
63% chance
Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?
75% chance
Will Manifold introduce an AI-based feature that automatically resolves markets by 2030?
83% chance
Will Manifold Markets still be active in 2030?
84% chance
Will Peter Thiel reference Manifold Markets by 2030?
44% chance