Will credible evidence emerge linking Tulsi Gabbard to Putin before 2030?
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10
Ṁ509
2030
21%
chance

Resolves YES if credible evidence emerges that Gabbard worked for Russia at any point in time after 24.02.2022 during the Russian invasion of Ukraine (possibly but not necessarily still ongoing in 2030).

I will not bet on this market.

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she's leaking it all back to the Kremlin

She's probably the one who encouraged them to use Signal to make it easier, they just somehow screwed up and added Goldberg to the chat 🤣

@MalachiteEagle what do you think the probability is that this will resolve yes?

@Shai Good question. By 2030 I'm not entirely sure, it depends on a lot of factors that are hard to predict. If she gets arrested in that timeframe then the likelihood of credible evidence being made public goes up by a lot, but even then it's not 100%.

Would be interesting to have another question like this one where the resolution date is 2100.

@Shai my guess is her gameplan is to keep walking in lockstep with Russia's interests and rapidly spread its influence in the US establishment, anticipating that there will be a major conflict between the US and China/Russia in the next 10 years. If things play out the way she's hoping then that influence will reap personal dividends when the time comes.

Only problem is that she's not really smart enough to pull it off without major fumbles. This episode is just one example, and it's likely that much more egregious violations of operational security will occur under her watch. Question then is how do the other branches of government react, and will they wake up in time

fumble fumble

you may wanna edit that title. i think you mean 2030?

@mattyb Fixed.Thanks!