Context:
https://www.obsolete.pub/p/anthropic-faces-potentially-business
This market resolves YES if:
Any court orders Anthropic to pay $1 billion or more in monetary damages in the case Bartz et al v. Anthropic PBC, Case No. 3:24-cv-05417-WHA (N.D. Cal.), even if later modified, reduced, or overturned
This market resolves NO if:
The case is resolved (including by settlement) and no court has ordered Anthropic to pay $1 billion or more in monetary damages as a result of this case
EDIT (07/25): I will not trade on this market.
1,000
1.00Looks like I need to keep this market open at least until the further hearing on September 25. https://apnews.com/article/anthropic-authors-book-settlement-ai-copyright-claude-b282fe615338bf1f98ad97cb82e978a1#
After spending nearly an hour mostly lambasting a settlement that he believes is full of pitfalls, U.S. District Judge William Alsup scheduled another hearing in San Francisco on September 25 to review whether his concerns had been addressed.
“We’ll see if I can hold my nose and approve it” then, Alsup said before adjourning Monday’s hearing.
Assuming the judge approves the proposed settlement, this market will resolve NO. That should happen at/after the hearing on September 8. https://www.axios.com/2025/09/05/anthropic-ai-copyright-settlement
Anthropic actually settled for 1.5 billion. This counts as No per discussion below. But the amount is more than I expected, I think.
https://x.com/RobertFreundLaw/status/1964040618549846071?t=007jxrkyYQC7McLTCToNtQ&s=19
All the markets on this:
- https://manifold.markets/GauravYadav/will-anthropic-lose-the-authors-cop
- https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/the-potentially-businessending-anth
- https://manifold.markets/CharlesFoster/will-anthropic-be-ordered-to-pay-1b
- https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/will-anthropic-go-bankrupt-or-be-di