Global Average Temperature 2024 per gistemp LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
➕
Plus
4
Ṁ2870
Jan 14
2%
J-D 2024 displayed as under 1.25C
2%
J-D 2024 displayed as 1.25C
2%
J-D 2024 displayed as 1.26C
4%
J-D 2024 displayed as 1.27C
21%
J-D 2024 displayed as 1.28C
58%
J-D 2024 displayed as 1.29C
9%
J-D 2024 displayed as 1.30C or more

Data is currently at
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv

or

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

(or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)

The relevant figure for resolving this question is the J-D column for the 2024 year.

January 2024 might show as 122 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.22C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.

If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.


Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that +1.20C does not resolve an exceed 1.205C option as yes.

First plausible number I see or is pointed out to me shall be used for resolution. This is so that subsequent revisions to data should not cause re-resolution unless there is a clear problem with the first resolution data used.

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bought Ṁ50 J-D 2024 displayed a... NO

D-N shown as 1.29 and consensus seems likely less than last years 1.35 for Dec.

At https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/global-average-temperature-december
JRP seems to believe in much lower values like less than 1.2C for Dec

This would seem to suggest 1.28 or lower, but here there seems more preference for 1.29+