AI-based animal communication research leads to new conservation policies by EOY 2030?
4
Ṁ39
2030
35%
chance

Advancements in AI decoding of communications have potential implications for animal conservation efforts. This market resolves to 'YES' if a new conservation policy is enacted by a government or supragovernmental institution based on AI research into animal communication by December 31, 2030.

  • Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed a sufficient condition for a YES resolution:

    • A politician involved in writing or advocating for the policy cites the AI research in a public statement.

The creator notes that other scenarios for a YES resolution may still be considered.

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I'm foggy in what "based on" means here. The likely thing is that animal communication work causes public opinion to sway toward conservation and then for governments to pass some conservation laws. But the laws won't necessarily say anything about the communication technology.

@digory I'm not sure what to do about this yet.

@Chumchulum Maybe something like it being cited in a statement by a politician involved in writing/advocating for the legislation? Even if it isn't in the legislation itself, they'll likely speak to public opinion/ongoing discussion. This is probably a slightly higher bar that doesn't capture all influence, though.

@sblaplace That works. I'll keep the debate open however