Background GLP-1 (Glucagon-like peptide-1) drugs are currently one of the fastest-growing segments in the pharmaceutical industry, primarily used for treating type 2 diabetes and obesity. The market is dominated by private companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
Many sources predict a very significant impact of cost of those drugs on public health systems, which could potentially be solved by a Manhattan Project-like development effort to create a government-owned alternative.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:
A company that is >50% owned by any national government receives regulatory approval for a new GLP-1 drug in at least two major markets (US, EU, UK, Japan, China) before January 1, 2040
The drug must be a novel GLP-1 receptor agonist, not a generic version or biosimilar of an existing drug
The market will resolve NO if:
No majority government-owned company receives such approval before 2040
A government-owned company only receives approval for a generic/biosimilar version
A company with minority government ownership (<50%) introduces a GLP-1 drug
1,000
1.00It's hard to say, but competition is increasing. Private companies are moving fast. Just look at how easy it is to get Mounjaro online now. The same thing is with other diabetes meds. That kind of access might push others to innovate quicker.