Will anybody release a plausibly official sequel to Disco Elysium before 2030?
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10
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2029
68%
chance

Has to at least have some claim to IP rights, DiscoElysium2.swf on Newgroungs does not count

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yes but not at this price

PROS: wheel invented (engine, setting, in-house pipelines), some of the design team will be excited to take it on no matter whether it's the same studio or a split off, publishers will want it to happen, fans will want it to happen

CONS: controversy, IP challenges, following up on a cult hit without some of the lead visionary team, loss of in-house expertise, advancing engine tech expectations, ambitious even as a sequel, fans will want it to happen

@Stralor counterargument: games like this live and die by the creative lead, just look at Failbetter Games post Alexis Kennedy vs Weather Factory, it's orders of magnitude easier to find a team that can build a competent Unreal Engine product than a writer/designer that good.

predicts NO

@CodeandSolder yep, I think the cons are strong. AK is an interesting example; incredible writer who sabotaged his own professional relationships with bad behavior and then leaned on his strengths and a wave of counter outrage to make something new. the key part there is new, though. it wasn't a sunless sea/ fallen london IP, and then failbetter took longer than usual to pull sunless skies together without him despite having a really strong cadre of writers still under their wing, owning the IP, and a built-up tech pipeline. comparing those paths to the Disco Elysium future tells me it'll be a challenge for a DE2. my estimates put one coming out around 2026-2028, so still within the YES range, but it'll have struggles to get there