Will FDA approve more than 10 new mRNA based vaccines before 2028?
Will FDA approve more than 10 new mRNA based vaccines before 2028?
Mini
7
Ṁ652028
60%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Vaccines approved after this market starts are counted, regardless of when developement or trials started. Includes duplicate vaccines for the same disease. Excludes emergency use authorization.
Get
1,000and
1.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will FDA approve more than 10 new mRNA based vaccines before 2030?
67% chance
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028?
78% chance
Will FDA approve any type of personalized cancer mRNA vaccines before 2028?
84% chance
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against AIDS before 2028?
24% chance
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against glioblastoma before 2028?
20% chance
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any type of breast cancer before 2028?
31% chance
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against prostate adenocarcinoma before 2028?
41% chance
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against squamous cell carcinoma before 2028?
35% chance
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against melanoma before 2028?
48% chance
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any type of human papillomavirus infection before 2028?
36% chance