I’ve committed to Stanford! I’m really excited.

That’s the right spirit! May you be wildly successful on this new and different trajectory! But it will take work and passion and, as you mention, commitment and excitement!

By Cao's theorem it is impossible for MIT to reject you from success

I think most people tend to recalibrate their expectations of themselves. Counterintuitively, going to MIT might make you feel less successful in four years than otherwise, if it enforces a self-image with high standards (although if you are rejected you might never know for sure if you would have felt this way).

But I'm betting toward 50% on the basis that the resolution is mostly psychological and therefore hard to predict.

This question and the fact that you have never pulled an all nighter makes me skeptical you will get admitted 😂

How will you measure the reduction in success? You don’t know how much success you’d have if MIT admitted you.

@NicoDelon I will use my best estimate

@Conflux How so? How can you know anything about the relevant counterfactual?

@NicoDelon for instance, there’s an opportunity I really would’ve wanted that would’ve been available at MIT

@Conflux Opportunities, okay, but how do you define success?

@NicoDelon life satisfaction, achieving goals, suchlike

@Conflux this market is sort of a meme so I don’t wanna overformalize it

@Conflux ok, I guess I'm out then

@NicoDelon the vibes fam