As a longtime user, I've been reading through /SG/feedback-from-new-superconductor-us and responding to some of the comments, and it's really interesting! (One random takeaway is that Manifold should rename loans, or at least explain them better.)
Anyway, one of the things that surprised me at first is users talking about how there wasn't enough variety of topics. As someone who bets in markets about elections, podcasts, sleep schedules, news events, school policies, romantic relationships, math, TV shows, personal goals, friends, Manifold itself, rationalussy, and much more, I felt like Manifold does a great job with this - since you can search for markets about almost anything, and create the markets that don't exist yet.
However, I realized that for newer users, the mana cost of making a market can actually be significant. Furthermore, without a long record on the site, your markets might receive less trust and attention. Since I've got some spare mana, I wanted to fix some of this!
Guidelines
If your net worth (visible on profile) is under 2000 mana (negotiable, if you convince me that market costs are a barrier for the questions you want to ask), then you are eligible for my market funding! Currently, I'll put no limit on the number of markets per person, but I may change that if it becomes a problem.
This can work in one of two ways - you can choose:
[Default option] I give you the cost of creating a new market (varies based on market type: M$50 for yes/no, more for multiple choice, etc), and then you make the market! If you want, you can link it here. Then if I have any familiarity with the topic, I'll bet in it, and if I especially like the idea, I may subsidize (add to the pool) as well.
I make the market for you based on your idea (crediting you), and link it here. I only offer this because I'm a longtime user with a record of running and resolving markets fairly, "the badge," and a decent number of followers. So if you think me creating it will produce more eyeballs/trust on your market, or if it's a bit subjective but you want to bet without creating suspicion, I'll volunteer this as an option.
Since I'm funding, I will set some standards: I will only fund markets that are sufficiently new and non-spammy, and I will only fund markets that have clear resolution criteria. Note that subjective can still be clear, and that I'll fund markets on any topic (within reason), including personal ones!
The bounty size on this market (currently M$1000) is arbitrary, I may increase it if it runs out.
I reserve the right to make modifications to these guidelines in the future, in case I think of (or you suggest) an improvement to the system!
General policy for my bounty markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my stated criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the bounty market, I may pay out funds according to the bounty market's spirit or not at all.
1,000
1.00If funded, I intend to make another YES/NO question that follows up on this angle about the ongoing and implied "what about other possible LK-99-likes?" questions, so that people can arbitrage it properly (and also draw the appropriate mental connections as to "wait, what is LK-99 exactly?" and thus further perfect the distributed reasoning about things). I may focus on the "copper or gold?" detail recently discussed by Lai et alia in https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.16040.pdf
I'd like to make a YES/NO question along these lines:
Will the Amtrak Avelia Liberty trainset make a routine passenger run before Jan. 1, 2025?
That trainset is Amtrak's replacement for the Acela Express trainset currently in service on the U.S. Northeast Corridor. Rollout has been, uh, troubled. The latest estimate is that they will be in service late 2024.
I would rely on news coverage and possibly passenger reports posted online to determine if these trains are being used for regular service before the end of 2024. (I wouldn't resolve YES if, say, they give politicians a special ride during testing or something like that.)
Would you fund this and/or subsidize it?
I'm doing the same thing. However, rather than, "clear criteria," and, "novel," my requirements are, "novel and third party validated." Please share your market on my market comments. https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/interesting-markets-grants-submit-h
I’m relatively new to Manifold. I currently have about $M1700 net worth. I’ve been wanting to do a multiple choice “meme stock market” for professional chess players. I like to follow chess and what happens at the professional level of chess. However, there are A LOT of high level chess players. If I were to make a multiple choice market, I would want to put at least 20 different names down. Honestly, I would prefer to do more like 40-50 but with each choice costing $M25, 20 names would cost me 500 and 40 names would cost me $M1000 which is over half of my net worth. Whether or not I receive the bounty, I plan on doing it eventually but I need to keep grinding until I feel that I can comfortably afford to create that market. Any amount helps! Thanks for being willing to help out us newbies!
Would you mind signal boosting, or adding a bounty to my market? It seems like an important question with clear resolution criteria, but I haven't gotten many eyes on it. https://manifold.markets/NathanielMonson/will-mounjaro-be-fda-approved-for-w
