@ScottAlexander just posted a blog post (https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/quests-and-requests) listing eight "Projects that need incubating." He states the following:

I’ll be starting a new round of ACX Grants sometime soon. I can’t guarantee I’ll fund all these projects - some of them are more like vanity projects than truly effective. But I might fund some of them, and others might be doable without funding. So if you’re feeling left out and want a cause to devote your life to, here are some extras.

A lot of the ideas seem like they could be good, or at least interesting, but they'd also require devoted effort. So I wanted to make this market on whether any of them happen in the next year. (Strictly speaking, by end of November 2024.)

There will probably be some discretion involved in determining whether the projects have occurred. Should he make any kind of public statement on this matter, I will fully defer to Scott. Otherwise, I will do my best — though if it becomes contentious, I may just defer to a poll or other decision-making body.

But should the responsibility devolve on me: I'd likely resolve to probabilities (probably 25%, 50%, or 75%) if a project has partially happened. Also, some projects, like #3, are less concrete and more about "doing things in a certain vein." For those, I'd do a full YES resolution if the project has achieved at least one substantial victory, or a well-developed organization.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.