Will Pope Francis die in office? | Manifold

Will Pope Francis die in office?

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Pope Benedict was the first pope in 6 centuries to resign from office. Will Pope Francis choose to continue Benedict's trend, or will he die in office?

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https://manifold.markets/MikeH/will-pope-francis-abdicate arbitrage ?

Will Pope Francis abdicate?

19% chance. Resolves YES if Pope Francis abdicates or otherwise resigns the office of Pope. Resolves NO if Pope Francis dies in office or is otherwise removed other than due to his own volition.

bought Ṁ50 YES

How does this resolve if it is found out that he never became Pope in the first place (that is Benedict XVI is still the Pope)?

I would resolve it as N/A, if backed by credible news sources.

predicts YES

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-62360114

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