This market resolves to “Yes” if Catalunya declares independence and leaves (or is actively in the process of leaving) Spain by January 1st 2040.

For the purposes of this market, “yes” happens if any region of (what is currently) Spain including at least parts of (what is currently) Lleida, Tarragona, Girona, and Barcelona leaves and becomes its own country. The actual name of the new country doesn’t matter (“Aragon” & “Catalonia” would also count as “yes”).

“No” happens if any of Lleida, Tarragona, Girona, and Barcelona are wholly part of Spain on January 1st 2040.

N/a happens if Spain is annexed by a foreign power or merges with another country before 1st January 2040.