Will the Federal Reserve exist and retain it's current level of independence by the end of Trump's term.
Will the Federal Reserve exist and retain it's current level of independence by the end of Trump's term.
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Resolves NO if at any point before Jan 21st, 2029 independence of the Federal Reserve has been reduced. I'm open to refining resolution criteria until Trump's inauguration on Jan 21st 2025.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1854783747264012792
Elon Musk has endorsed US Senator Mike Lee's call to end the Federal Reserve and give the president direct control over monetary policy.
I will not bet on this market.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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