MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will Violent Insurgencies Emerge in the United States before 2032?
Mini
10
Ṁ189
2032
49%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Resolution will be based on whether there is media consensus that any actions undertaken by politically motivated guerrilla groups represent an insurgency. I will not bet on this market. I'm open to suggestions that refine the resolution criteria before 2026.

#🇺🇸 US Politics
#️ Politics
#Trump
#World
#️ Wars
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
Comments

Related questions

Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
15% chance
Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?
18% chance
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2036?
95% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?
70% chance
Will there be a civil war in the US in the next 20 years?
19% chance
Will the US see a violent insurgency before 2030?
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026?
12% chance
Will there be a violent revolution or Civil war in America by 2100?
59% chance
Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?
10% chance
Will political violence in the US increase in 2025?

Related questions

Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
15% chance
Will the US see a violent insurgency before 2030?
Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?
18% chance
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026?
12% chance
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2036?
95% chance
Will there be a violent revolution or Civil war in America by 2100?
59% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?
70% chance
Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?
10% chance
Will there be a civil war in the US in the next 20 years?
19% chance
Will political violence in the US increase in 2025?
Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules
BrowseElectionNewsAbout