Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2036?
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2036?
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If there is the same resolution criteria as the 2026 market, then the title doesn't matter. Odds should be the same.
@MaybeNotDepends Using the "same" rules when you don't mean it is just laziness and bad market rules writing.
@MaybeNotDepends the market is perfectly clear, you are being intentionally obtuse in an ironically failed attempt at pedantry
predicts YES 2y
@connorwilliams97 WaPo claims 14k arrests: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/22/who-caused-violence-protests-its-not-antifa/ so yes
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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